Kamala Harris Slashes Donald Trump’s Lead Among Men in Final Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris has cut former President Donald Trump’s once double-digit lead among men to single digits, according to a new Marist Poll.
This election has long pointed to a dramatic gender gap with men mostly supporting Trump and women mostly supporting Harris.
At the beginning of October, Trump enjoyed a 16-point lead among men with 57 percent over Harris’s 41 percent, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll. But the vice president has slashed this 16-point lead to just four points with 47 percent to Trump’s 51 percent, the final iteration of the poll published Monday shows.
The former president has, however, narrowed Harris’s lead among women, from 18 points in the October 3 poll to 11 points in the latest one.
Harris was previously ahead with 58 percent over Trump’s 40 percent with women, and now she is ahead with 55 percent over Trump’s 44 percent.
Altogether, this has slashed the gender gap over time from 34 to 15 points.
The November 5 poll was carried out among 1,560 adults, made up of registered and likely voters, between October 31 and November 2. It has a margin of error of 3.2 percent points. The October 3 poll was carried out among 1,628 adults, also made up of registered and likely voters, between September 27 and October 3. It has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
Newsweek has contacted teams for Trump and Harris via email for comment.
The voting gender gap is not a new phenomenon. Women have been more likely to support the Democrats and men have been more likely to support the Republicans since the 1980s, and this political divide has only grown over time.
But, with this year’s election as tight as ever, the gender gap threatens to be a defining element.
On Monday, Newsweek looked at the national polls since October 28 that provide a breakdown of voting intention based on gender and found that on average, women break for Harris by 8 points, while men break for Trump by 10 points. That amounts to an average gender gap of 9 points.
Polls show that on average, Harris has the support of 52 percent of female voters and 43 percent of male voters, according to Newsweek analysis. Meanwhile, 53 percent of male voters back Trump compared to 44 percent of female voters.
“Whichever way this election goes, gender will be a critical factor in determining the outcome,” Carrie Baker, a professor of Women, Gender and Sexuality at Smith College in Massachusetts, previously told Newsweek.
The race remains neck and neck, with any polling lead enjoyed by either candidate being razor-thin.
Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has Harris as the favorite to win as of Election Day, for the first time since October 17, after its simulations found that the vice president wins 50 times out of 100 over Trump winning 49 times out of 100.
Similarly, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, who is no longer associated with the site, has technically called it for Harris. In his final election forecast with FiveThirtyEight’s “direct descendant,” the Silver Bulletin, he picked Harris as the favorite to win by a razor-thin edge.
Out of 80,000 simulations, Harris won in 50.015 percent of cases, while Trump won in 49.65 percent of cases, per Silver’s model. Some 270 simulations resulted in a 269-269 Electoral College tie.